Things to watch for against Denver

1) Check out how often Eric Johnson and Vernon Davis play together...Johnson is an unrestricted free agent after this game. If Johnson and Davis work well together, the Niners might make him an offer. If not, expect the Yale graduate (who killed the Crimson my freshman year with 21 receptions in The Game as a skinny receiver) to move elsewhere. Johnson is a typical West Coast offense TE...a guy who bulked up so that he could block and catch (he has outstanding hands). Unfortunately, the 49ers will have no use for him if the team decides he doesn't fit well with Davis.

2) Watch for the lack of pass rush...I hope this is the last time I will ever have to write about our glaring lack of pressure on the QB. If ANYTHING needs to change for next year, it's that we need way more pressure on the QB from our ends and linebackers.

3) Who wins the battle of promising QBs: Smith or Cutler? Or, will they both look lousy?

Where to go now?

I will soon be posting with in depth draft-pick coverage, but for now...the main dilemma is whether or not to root against Denver...I'm mixed on this one. We could really use the higher draft pick...

Bryant Suspended Four Games

This is not the ideal time for this, Antonio... If Eric Johnson is healthy, I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of Davis/Johnson sets this week and next. Assuming the Niners don't make the playoffs (and it's now even more likely that they won't), Bryant will also have to sit out the first two games of the season next year. I bet the Niners will sign a free agent WR to complement Bryant/Battle...and to take Bryant's place during games 1 and 2 next season. My guess is Drew Bennett. He's a Bay Area guy and a huge target...remember, he had a few mind-boggling games last season. Bennett was under-utilized (or maybe he just sucked) this year, but he may be able to provide the Niners with a better third option than anyone they have on their team this year or could draft... Question: Will Brandon Williams get some WR playing time now that Bryant is out? Or, will the Niners go to Taylor Jacobs?

Guide to this week's games

OK Niners fans...here's who to root for this week:

Vikings at Packers:

Both teams share the same record as the Niners: 6-8. Root for the Vikings, as the Niners hold the head-to-head tiebreaker against Minnesota but do not against Green Bay. Plus, it's always fun to root against the Pack. This game will be like the good ol' days (kind of), when it was actually important to root against Green Bay (it was usually for the No. 1 seed then...now, it's for a terribly flawed team to squeak into a wild card spot). A Vikings win would be an upset, given Minnesota will play a rookie QB in his first NFL on the Frozen Tundra. Go Vikes Go.

Panthers at Falcons:

Root for 6-8 Carolina against 7-7 Atlanta. A Falcons win would put Atlanta in the driver's seat for the last wild card spot. A division loss hurts them when it comes down to tie-breakers (neither the Falcons or the Panthers played the Niners this year)...and, of course, we'd rather have two teams at 7-8 than one at 8-7 and one at 6-9. A Panthers win would be an upset, given Carolina's QB woes; playing at Atlanta is never easy.

Saints at Giants:

Root for New Orleans. NO has the division locked up so a Saints win means nothing for the Niners playoff hopes. The Giants, however, might be the biggest threat to the Niners taking a wild card spot...they are 7-7 right now but have two loseable games remaining on their schedule...New Orleans should be mad after a horrific loss at home to the Redskins last week. I hope Brees and Bush show up to send NYC into a tizzy. The Giants might explode with another loss and totally tank the last week of the season...here's hoping for a Giant Explosion.

Eagles at Cowboys:

This game doesn't really matter, as I think Cowboys will win the division and the Eagles will take one of the wild cards...remember, the Eagles beat the Niners earlier this season, so they have that head-to-head tiebreaker advantage. Since the Eagles are 8-6, they are going to beat out SF even if they lose their last two and the Niners win both. Root for many injuries...just kidding.

Chargers at Seahawks:

If the Chargers beat Seattle, we can throw all of our attention to Tampa next week (assuming a SF win), as the division will be at stake. More than any other game this week, tune into Seattle and root hard for LT to go nuts.

Arizona at San Francisco:

If SF can't beat the Cards, there's no sense rooting against anyone.

Playoffs?!?!

Thanks Jim Mora...both, actually...dad for the title of this blog post and son for having his team tank, opening up a possible spot for the Niners as a wild card...

There are still too many teams jumbled up at 7-7 or 6-8 to make a strong case for the wild card at this time. It's much easier to think about the division, where the scenario is clear: two wins and two Seattle losses, and we're in...it's amazing to be in this situation at this point, given all of our clunkers this year. But...

You have to admit, it's likely that San Diego beats Seattle next week. It's less likely that we beat Arizona, but we're favored...

We have yet to win a blowout game this year. Even the Raiders game was back and forth for a while. I'd love to finally come charging out of the gates and buy the Cardinals. It would give the team so much confidence for Denver. Fortunately, Spencer will have had another week to rest his ankle and Ulbrich should be healthier. Derek Smith and Adam Snyder may both be back as well.

I'm stunned that the Saints lost at home to the Redskins. If we are fortunate enough to make the playoffs and somehow, some way advance into the second round to play New Orleans (who will likely get a first round bye), I'd love to emulate the 'Skins strategy...ball control and lots of Frank Gore. Start off with Smith throwing and then just plug away with Gore.

Of course, we'd also have to take away some pointers as how to neutralize Reggie Bush (7 carries for 14 yards and a non-factor in the passing game), but I'm getting ahead of myself.

For now, the defense will have its hands full with Arizona this week. I hope we can put some pressure on Leinart (even though I'm sure we won't, since we didn't even pressure Hasselback last week)...but, maybe Mr. Nolan will surpise me...

I'm cheered up!

Wow, I forgot the 49ers could actually play well...

Of course, they didn't for nearly three quarters (offensively, at least). But then...

Smith's flat-footed 60-yard pass to Battle was the first big play not called back from a penalty or from a toe out-of-bounds in three months. It seemed as though the play opened up the Niner offense for the remainder of the game--almost an ice-breaker at a middle school dance. Finally, everyone took a sigh of relief and had fun.

The defense was very good. Although Seattle moved the ball and the Niners still had a virtually non-existant four-man rush, the defense stopped the Seahawks from converting on the big play. This was much different than Sunday's laugher (cryer?) vs. Green Bay, where Favre had the deep ball working for much of the game.

Keith Lewis is really good...this was a breakout game for him. He was outstanding. He might be the team's best defensive player.

Nice to see Spencer back at corner...and even nicer that Davis and Strickland are on IR. I don't mean to be callous, but it's somewhat comforting to know that Davis won't be out there. He wears a huge bulls-eye and doesn't have the confidence to compete against good QBs.

What a silly penalty on Vernon Davis after his touchdown....jesus, NFL...this game is played for entertainment. Let the players celebrate a little bit...it's so ridiculous he was penalized for that. They need to be a little more lenient with celebrations...

It's 1:36 AM on the East Coast, but I'm still too excited to go to sleep...that was such a needed victory. Most importantly, the Niners season continues...

At Denver...ouch. Struggling Broncos or not, playing at Denver is one of the top five most difficult places to play each year. It's loud, it's cold, it's often snowing...good luck Alex Smith. This confidence boost should help...

Readers, I need some cheering up

What's the point?

I have been in the blogosphere doldrums the past two days. If we can't beat Green Bay at home...

I mean, come on. The Packers got spanked by the Jets last week...and we make Favre look like the same QB he was ten years ago. Unbelievable. We've sunk right back to square one.

We need a stud cornerback. I'm not totally sold on Spencer, even when he's healthy. I'd take a stud corner in the first round of next year's draft if pass rush wasn't such an obvious need.

Of course, we got no pressure on Favre, and I'm not sure we'll get any pressure on another QB all season. Other than Brandon Moore, we don't have a single player who can rush the QB from the D-line or linebacker position. That is ridiculous and sad. Manny Lawson, where are you? The only time I see you is making a tackle after a running back or wide-out has gained nine yards...for a first round pick, you have to be more valuable than a drop-back-in-coverage linebacker...

Watching the Ravens this week made me remember how important a defense can be...and watching us put no pressure on Favre cemented the notion.

I don't want to talk about Smith (look, he's 22...he's gonna make mistakes) or Gore (disappeared after the first quarter) or Bryant (dude's gotta contribute more than 39 yards) or Davis (Hallelujiah! He finally got in the action...thank you, Eric Johnson, for getting injured)...

I just want a brand new spankin' defense. And unfortunately, that's all that gives me hope at this point, as the 2006 season will likely officially end on Thursday.

Readers, I need some cheering up.

6-7?

This week's game against the Packers is very winnable. The Niners will be back at home...and while Mr. Favre has a history of playing well at Candlestick, these are not your older brother's Packers.

Alex Smith has to have a good game on Sunday. The pressure's on, lil' buddy. Smith has to throw deep and connect with Bryant, Battle and Davis. We know Gore will do his thing, if healthy.

The Niners are the most banged up they've been all year (hence why they cut Tony Parrish). Derek Smith will be out, Adam Snyder may be gone for the year, Shawntae Spencer will probably rest one more week, Eric Johnson will not play...but even these injuries are not crippling like recent season's past. The Niners not only can but should win on Sunday. If not, the season is over.

With four games remaining, it's too early to figure out who to root for and against in the NFC, as many of the Niners' competitors play each other in the coming weeks. Personally, I think the Falcons may be the best of the wild card contenders...so I'd certainly root against them. I'm not concerned with the Rams or Vikings--just don't think they are good enough to pose a real threat. The Eagles play three road games in a row, so I'm not too concerned there either...but the Giants have a talented team if Eli plays like he did last week. And, of course, the Panthers defense makes Carolina a threat.

So, I'd root against Atlanta, New York and Carolina, as far as the playoff picture goes. If two of those three teams win a couple games, the Niners may be history, even with a win this week and an upset over Seattle next Thursday.

Back to Reality

OK, so the 49ers aren't that good...

I suppose that's simply reality. The defense isn't quick enough to stay with Reggie Bush...and some are (Chicago, Baltimore, Denver...), so it's not like Bush is invincible.

Alex Smith is still a work in progress. Those who think he will never make the leap to "elite" quarterback should realize, however, that he is only 22 years old. If he develops every year, the Niners will have made a super No. 1 pick...a quarterback to lead a team for 10-15 years. Even Montana and Young had shorter careers with the Niners than 15 years.

Frank Gore can't do it himself. This was the first game in recent memory where Gore was stopped. Vernon Davis, we need you. You can be a game-breaker...let's see some flash.

Joe Nedney's kickoffs aren't strong enough. He rarely, if ever, booms the ball into the end zone. I miss Wade Richey's gargantuan kickoffs...

The Niners are just getting robbed on ball spots and replay...this was another game where iffy calls continuosly were reviewed in favor of the opponent. Last week's game would have been a Niners victory by 10 if close calls weren't SF's way...this one still would have been a loss, but a closer defeat...

The Niners used to have a stacked class of linebackers. Peterson, Moore, Ulbrich, D. Smith, Winborn...

Now, the Niners linebackers need improvement. Derek Smith is a nice player, but he is not a monster like the best MLBs in the game. Peterson is a loss, but even he wasn't a tackling machine like Urlacher, Ray Lewis, Vilma, Joey Porter, etc...the game-breaking linebackers. Getting another hard-hitting linebacker should be a priority for the team next year.

If I were to draft today and had one pick in each round (the Niners have many more than that in the '07 draft), I'd draft the following positions, in this order:

1st round: Defensive tackle who can provide pass pressure
2nd round: Linebacker
3rd round: Cornerback
4th round: Defensive end
5th round: Defensive tackle
6th round: Linebacker
7th round: Cornerback

I'd go all defense...a more dominating defense that can rush the passer will help the offenseby putting Smith in better field position. The Niners had miserable starting position against the Saints.

Then, I'd sign a veteran free agent wide receiver...Battle and Bryant are legitimate starters, but the team could use a reliable third receiver who gets open a lot and who can catch pivotal third down passes. If there's one available, I might sign a No. 2 wideout and move Arnaz to the third spot.

And I'm OK with letting Eric Johnson go...as much as like the Ivy League thing, I went to Harvard, so...

No pass rush

Earlier in the season, the pass rush was so bad that Mike Nolan was already talking about signing veteran guys next season to help put pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

In the midst of the team's resurrgence, the lack of pass rush has not been a headline issue. For one, the rush has been better...Melvin Oliver, Roderick Green and Brandon Moore have come out of relative obscurity to put some heat (from time to time) on the quarterback.

But the rush was nonexistant during the Rams' final drive (after BY's initial coverage sack), as evidenced by Bulger's 9-for-9 performance. He had plenty of time to find receivers and hardly had to roll out of the pocket.

This is a serious issue, especially facing Drew Brees, who is putting up 300+ passing yards against good teams. He must be salivating at the prospect of playing at home against a team that can't put pressure on him.

To have success against the Saints, BY must have a huge game. Nolan will likely have to call delayed blitzes and maybe even risk a corner or safety blitz so that Brees doesn't have a breeze throwing long TD passes against coverage guys who can't hang with receivers. Either that, or Walt Harris and Shawntae Spencer (assuming he's back) are going to need to play out of their minds.

This team needs pass rushing help from the ends...just as it has for the last 10 years. I wish Tim Harris and Rickey Jackson were still around to create some havoc from the elephant...or at least a Kevin Greene...hell, Julian Peterson or Andre Carter would do...

A few thoughts, moving forward...

*Is Frank Gore being injured in the last few minutes of a game going to be a trend? Maybe the Niners should think about spelling Gore with Hicks earlier in the game, if it means that Gore's body is more likely to hold up in the game's last five minutes...

*You never really know how a young team not used to winning will respond to a heartbreaking loss. I have fears of a N'Orleans' drubbing next week. On the flip side, a close game will show a vast amount of improvement from the team. Playing at New Orleans is the most difficult game the team has had since at Chicago...

*There are so many teams at 5-6 and 6-5...in fact, it seems likely that one team of the following: (Giants, Eagles, Rams, Falcons, Niners) will join the Panthers as the last wild card team (with the Cowboys, Bears, Saints and Seahawks). Those five bubble teams are really flawed right now...someone is going to have to make a break for the postseason. It could be the Niners, but winning on the road against strong teams has become a necessity. There will be no backing in to the playoffs this year...perhaps we can hope that Jay Cutler is overwhelmed by the NFL scene and hands away a game at Denver...thing is, winning at Denver is so difficult, I think Jim Druckenmiller might be able to lead the Broncos to victory...

*If the Niners beat the Seahawks or Saints on the road, Vernon Davis is going to have to be a downfield weapon.

*The Niners played well without Spencer this week. That is a credit to the entire defense.

*Do you think Bryant Young is a Hall-of-Fame player? I do...this guy is still one of the best D-Linemen in the game. It is damn hard to do this at his age...and he brings it every season. For a while, he was a one-man show on the line. Maybe next year, we can finally get him some real help, a la 1994 and 1995.

Ouch

And this is what happens when you can't drop the hammer...it was only a matter of time before a team stole one.

How about punting instead of lining up a Nedney 51-yard field goal in the first half (and having the punt sail into the end zone, netting 14 yards)?

How about letting the Rams kick a 51-yarder of their own just before the first half?

How about Antonio Bryant's holding penalty, negating Frank Gore's 28-yard run in the first half?

How about that silly delay of game penalty at game's end?

Let's not even touch the 24-yard field goal on 4th-and-a-centimeter...that's a debatable call...thing is, Nolan now hasn't trusted his team on 4th-and-really short for three games in a row. I'd say a top priority for next season is getting a reliable third/fourth-down guy who can a yard 95% of the time. If Michael Robinson's not the guy, let's get a fullback who is.

The team drops to 5-6 with games at New Orleans, at Seattle and at Denver remaining...with Philly, New York, Carolina and Atlanta all losing today, a win today would have been huge. 8-8 might get in as the last wild card spot...but 9-7 is probably more realistic. This would mean that the Niners would have to win two of those three road games. A win at Seattle might be possible. A win at New Orleans next week has to be wildly unlikely. If Brees is throwing for 350 yards against every opponent, I'd have to imagine San Francisco's minimal pass rush isn't going to slow him down too much...and Denver is totally out of the question, especially because the Broncos will still be playing for home field when the Niners roll into town.

The Niners are now in a spot where simply staying with mediocre teams isn't going to cut it. They are going to have beat a legitimate winning team--at their own place--to have a chance at the playoffs. It's nice to have a chance 11 games into the season...but the door is closing fast.

P.S. Vernon Davis, can you please start to get into the action? I'm sick of only seeing you once a game as someone who has just dropped a pass...

Keys to the game...

1) If Spencer doesn't play, how will Strickland, Hudson and Davis fill in for him? Will they be victimized by Holt or Bruce?

2) Will Smith panic on the road against a hungry team desperate for a win?

3) Will the offense finally click on all cylinders, now that Vernon Davis, Bryant, Eric Johnson, Battle and Gore are all in the lineup at once?

Stretching the field

With Vernon Davis returning to full strength this week, will the Niners finally stretch the field in the Dome on Sunday? Antonio Bryant will not be suspended, according to Mike Nolan (although Nolan did oddly state that he doesn't "believe [he] has all the information." Not really sure if that means a suspension might be on the horizon, but with Bryant in the lineup in this pivotal division game, the Niners have the resources to force the Rams to respect Frank Gore.

A reasonable fear among Niner fans should be that teams will start to put nine guys in the box to stop Gore, who has been the team's primary offense in recent weeks. In order to burn teams that make this decision, Alex Smith is going to have to start to throw the deep ball effectively. With Davis, Bryant and Arnaz Battle in the lineup, Smith should have some resources.

Also, will we see some WR/RB pass plays this week? With Battle and Michael Robinson available, I expected that the Niners would throw in a trick pass-play per game. We haven't seen it much this year...which, perhaps, means that we will be seeing some tricks in the next few weeks. Norv Turner loves the reverse (we've seen speedy Bryan Gilmore get in on a couple of these), but where's the reverse-and-throw down field? I wouldn't be surprised to see either Robinson or Battle throw a pass this week, if the situation presents itself. At least a direct snap, Norv! Let's use our weapons...

Avoiding injuries

Much has been written about the development of Alex Smith, the emergence of Frank Gore, and the recent stifling play of the defense, keyed by Brandon Moore and Keith Lewis jumping into starting position.

However, one of the big reasons the Niners are 5-5 is injuries...or lack thereof.

In recent years, the Niners have been decimated by injuries. Unlike the New England Patriots, who have the depth to deal with numerous injuries to starters, San Francisco has not had the talent to fill in the gaps. To be honest, the team still doesn't...as evidenced by the horror that was Sammy Davis in last week's win.

Fortunately, Mike Nolan realized this...and he has made a game effort to rid his squad of the most injury prone. He shipped off Jamie Winborn, he cut ties with Ahmed Plummer, and he even made a tough call not to resign Julian Peterson, primarily for fear of tying up a lot of money in someone who might have future injury problems...the jury is still out on this one.

Last year, injuries to Jeremy Newberry and Jonas Jennings crippled the offensive line, giving Alex Smith no time (as a rookie, no less) to find his receivers (who were not talented enough to get wide open on their own). So, Nolan stockpiled offensive linemen...and this year, David Bass, Tony Wragge and Adam Snyder can spell the starters adequately.

Eric Heitman has been phenomenal filling in for Newberry...and, of course, Larry Allen is the big reason why Gore is so consistently good. Is it coincidence that the Niners three-game winning streak corresponds with Allen's return? No way.

At week 11 and 12, many teams are done in by key injuries. This may happen to the Eagles and Giants this year. Some of this is pure luck, but some injuries can be prevented by proper conditioning and eliminating players whose bodies can't take the strain. The Niners have finally become a team that benefits from the injuries of other teams rather than suffering through their own.

The team is still woefully thin at corner...and if Shawntae Spencer is out this week, the Niners might be done for. But, No.1 draft pick and possible future-star Vernan Davis has been a non-factor after his week one TD against Arizona. Has the team really missed Davis? Unclear...because the team has enough offensive depth to get by without him. If Antonio Bryant is suspended, it's possible that Davis will fill in for him without missing a beat...we will see.

Staying healthy is one of the biggest keys to victory in the NFL...and in an NFC so close, it could be what propels San Francisco to an 8-8 record...or, shockingly, a miraculous playoff appearance. Of course, one or two injuries in the wrong areas could send the team back to 6-10...just cross your fingers for Spencer and Gore.

5-5

For the first time in four seasons, the 49ers are at .500 after ten games.

Is this team actually a playoff team? Right now, I still have my doubts.

The Niners only have one road win. San Francisco has been a much better team at home for many years. Even recently, when they've been terrible, they have still consistently played better at home. Remember last year's game at home vs. Seattle? 27-25 Seahawks. Remember the road game? 41-3.

So, the team has not proven it can beat a good team on the road, as has been the case for many years now.

Looking at the remainder of the schedule, San Francisco must win this week at St. Louis. This is always a difficult place to play, given that the Rams have built their team for the turf (relying on speed and downfield passing to Holt and Bruce).

San Francisco can win at St. Louis---they even did last season (remember, SF beat the Rams twice last season, despite their putrid team). A win would put the Niners at 6-5. I will actually be rooting for Brett Favre (never thought I'd say that six years ago...) this week against Seattle. A Packers win, and the Niners are tied for first.

The Niners then play at New Orleans (difficult game, probable L), and later play at Seattle and at Denver. You have to think the Niners lose all of these games. Victories against the Cardinals and Packers at home (definitely possible) puts the team at 8-8.

Is 8-8 good enough to make the playoffs? Only with some luck...but it's possible Seattle could have some trouble down the stretch...(we won't even get into Wild Card chances here).

Seattle plays at Denver, vs. San Diego (just beat Denver at Mile High) and at Tampa Bay. The Bucs aren't good, but playing at home, that may not be a walk for Seattle. Three losses there puts Seattle at 9-7 with wins over Green Bay, Arizona and San Francisco. A victory over Tampa, and Seattle goes 10-6. These seem like the most likely scenarios...

In order for SF to win the west, Seattle pretty much has to lose to Green Bay this week (and the Niners must beat the Rams, of course).

So, root for Mr. Fav-re and chant GO PACK GO like you never thought you would before...

Welcome to the 49ers blog

This blog will be dedicated to analyzing the performance of the San Francisco 49ers. The goal of this blog is to become one of the premier 49ers blogs on the Internet. While I am not a San Francisco Chronicle beat writer or have any inside information on the team, I am a passionate fan who follows the team closely and has for many years. As the Niners fight to make the playoffs for the first time since the Garcia-Owens-Hearst era, I hope that other dedicated fans find this blog and add their two-cents on what they've seen from the team and what they hope to see in the future.

This is not a blog for complaining about the Yorks. Please do not read this blog if your concern is to complain about the team's ownership. This childish moaning is boring, hackneyed and pointless. The Yorks are trying to win, even if they have faults. Rather, this blog serves as a forum to discuss the players and coaching of the football team. Feel free to offer thoughts on players you'd like to see join (or leave) the team...and feel free to question coaching moves and player signings and puzzling contracts. Just don't expect to see anything about the stadium conflict or San Francisco politics. This isn't the place.

I hope 49ers fans across the globe find this blog and contribute to enhancing the dialogue about the team, which is currently sorely lacking.

Go Niners!