Wednesday, November 29, 2006

No pass rush

Earlier in the season, the pass rush was so bad that Mike Nolan was already talking about signing veteran guys next season to help put pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

In the midst of the team's resurrgence, the lack of pass rush has not been a headline issue. For one, the rush has been better...Melvin Oliver, Roderick Green and Brandon Moore have come out of relative obscurity to put some heat (from time to time) on the quarterback.

But the rush was nonexistant during the Rams' final drive (after BY's initial coverage sack), as evidenced by Bulger's 9-for-9 performance. He had plenty of time to find receivers and hardly had to roll out of the pocket.

This is a serious issue, especially facing Drew Brees, who is putting up 300+ passing yards against good teams. He must be salivating at the prospect of playing at home against a team that can't put pressure on him.

To have success against the Saints, BY must have a huge game. Nolan will likely have to call delayed blitzes and maybe even risk a corner or safety blitz so that Brees doesn't have a breeze throwing long TD passes against coverage guys who can't hang with receivers. Either that, or Walt Harris and Shawntae Spencer (assuming he's back) are going to need to play out of their minds.

This team needs pass rushing help from the ends...just as it has for the last 10 years. I wish Tim Harris and Rickey Jackson were still around to create some havoc from the elephant...or at least a Kevin Greene...hell, Julian Peterson or Andre Carter would do...

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

A few thoughts, moving forward...

*Is Frank Gore being injured in the last few minutes of a game going to be a trend? Maybe the Niners should think about spelling Gore with Hicks earlier in the game, if it means that Gore's body is more likely to hold up in the game's last five minutes...

*You never really know how a young team not used to winning will respond to a heartbreaking loss. I have fears of a N'Orleans' drubbing next week. On the flip side, a close game will show a vast amount of improvement from the team. Playing at New Orleans is the most difficult game the team has had since at Chicago...

*There are so many teams at 5-6 and 6-5...in fact, it seems likely that one team of the following: (Giants, Eagles, Rams, Falcons, Niners) will join the Panthers as the last wild card team (with the Cowboys, Bears, Saints and Seahawks). Those five bubble teams are really flawed right now...someone is going to have to make a break for the postseason. It could be the Niners, but winning on the road against strong teams has become a necessity. There will be no backing in to the playoffs this year...perhaps we can hope that Jay Cutler is overwhelmed by the NFL scene and hands away a game at Denver...thing is, winning at Denver is so difficult, I think Jim Druckenmiller might be able to lead the Broncos to victory...

*If the Niners beat the Seahawks or Saints on the road, Vernon Davis is going to have to be a downfield weapon.

*The Niners played well without Spencer this week. That is a credit to the entire defense.

*Do you think Bryant Young is a Hall-of-Fame player? I do...this guy is still one of the best D-Linemen in the game. It is damn hard to do this at his age...and he brings it every season. For a while, he was a one-man show on the line. Maybe next year, we can finally get him some real help, a la 1994 and 1995.

Sunday, November 26, 2006

Ouch

And this is what happens when you can't drop the hammer...it was only a matter of time before a team stole one.

How about punting instead of lining up a Nedney 51-yard field goal in the first half (and having the punt sail into the end zone, netting 14 yards)?

How about letting the Rams kick a 51-yarder of their own just before the first half?

How about Antonio Bryant's holding penalty, negating Frank Gore's 28-yard run in the first half?

How about that silly delay of game penalty at game's end?

Let's not even touch the 24-yard field goal on 4th-and-a-centimeter...that's a debatable call...thing is, Nolan now hasn't trusted his team on 4th-and-really short for three games in a row. I'd say a top priority for next season is getting a reliable third/fourth-down guy who can a yard 95% of the time. If Michael Robinson's not the guy, let's get a fullback who is.

The team drops to 5-6 with games at New Orleans, at Seattle and at Denver remaining...with Philly, New York, Carolina and Atlanta all losing today, a win today would have been huge. 8-8 might get in as the last wild card spot...but 9-7 is probably more realistic. This would mean that the Niners would have to win two of those three road games. A win at Seattle might be possible. A win at New Orleans next week has to be wildly unlikely. If Brees is throwing for 350 yards against every opponent, I'd have to imagine San Francisco's minimal pass rush isn't going to slow him down too much...and Denver is totally out of the question, especially because the Broncos will still be playing for home field when the Niners roll into town.

The Niners are now in a spot where simply staying with mediocre teams isn't going to cut it. They are going to have beat a legitimate winning team--at their own place--to have a chance at the playoffs. It's nice to have a chance 11 games into the season...but the door is closing fast.

P.S. Vernon Davis, can you please start to get into the action? I'm sick of only seeing you once a game as someone who has just dropped a pass...


Keys to the game...

1) If Spencer doesn't play, how will Strickland, Hudson and Davis fill in for him? Will they be victimized by Holt or Bruce?

2) Will Smith panic on the road against a hungry team desperate for a win?

3) Will the offense finally click on all cylinders, now that Vernon Davis, Bryant, Eric Johnson, Battle and Gore are all in the lineup at once?

Friday, November 24, 2006

Stretching the field

With Vernon Davis returning to full strength this week, will the Niners finally stretch the field in the Dome on Sunday? Antonio Bryant will not be suspended, according to Mike Nolan (although Nolan did oddly state that he doesn't "believe [he] has all the information." Not really sure if that means a suspension might be on the horizon, but with Bryant in the lineup in this pivotal division game, the Niners have the resources to force the Rams to respect Frank Gore.

A reasonable fear among Niner fans should be that teams will start to put nine guys in the box to stop Gore, who has been the team's primary offense in recent weeks. In order to burn teams that make this decision, Alex Smith is going to have to start to throw the deep ball effectively. With Davis, Bryant and Arnaz Battle in the lineup, Smith should have some resources.

Also, will we see some WR/RB pass plays this week? With Battle and Michael Robinson available, I expected that the Niners would throw in a trick pass-play per game. We haven't seen it much this year...which, perhaps, means that we will be seeing some tricks in the next few weeks. Norv Turner loves the reverse (we've seen speedy Bryan Gilmore get in on a couple of these), but where's the reverse-and-throw down field? I wouldn't be surprised to see either Robinson or Battle throw a pass this week, if the situation presents itself. At least a direct snap, Norv! Let's use our weapons...

Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Avoiding injuries

Much has been written about the development of Alex Smith, the emergence of Frank Gore, and the recent stifling play of the defense, keyed by Brandon Moore and Keith Lewis jumping into starting position.

However, one of the big reasons the Niners are 5-5 is injuries...or lack thereof.

In recent years, the Niners have been decimated by injuries. Unlike the New England Patriots, who have the depth to deal with numerous injuries to starters, San Francisco has not had the talent to fill in the gaps. To be honest, the team still doesn't...as evidenced by the horror that was Sammy Davis in last week's win.

Fortunately, Mike Nolan realized this...and he has made a game effort to rid his squad of the most injury prone. He shipped off Jamie Winborn, he cut ties with Ahmed Plummer, and he even made a tough call not to resign Julian Peterson, primarily for fear of tying up a lot of money in someone who might have future injury problems...the jury is still out on this one.

Last year, injuries to Jeremy Newberry and Jonas Jennings crippled the offensive line, giving Alex Smith no time (as a rookie, no less) to find his receivers (who were not talented enough to get wide open on their own). So, Nolan stockpiled offensive linemen...and this year, David Bass, Tony Wragge and Adam Snyder can spell the starters adequately.

Eric Heitman has been phenomenal filling in for Newberry...and, of course, Larry Allen is the big reason why Gore is so consistently good. Is it coincidence that the Niners three-game winning streak corresponds with Allen's return? No way.

At week 11 and 12, many teams are done in by key injuries. This may happen to the Eagles and Giants this year. Some of this is pure luck, but some injuries can be prevented by proper conditioning and eliminating players whose bodies can't take the strain. The Niners have finally become a team that benefits from the injuries of other teams rather than suffering through their own.

The team is still woefully thin at corner...and if Shawntae Spencer is out this week, the Niners might be done for. But, No.1 draft pick and possible future-star Vernan Davis has been a non-factor after his week one TD against Arizona. Has the team really missed Davis? Unclear...because the team has enough offensive depth to get by without him. If Antonio Bryant is suspended, it's possible that Davis will fill in for him without missing a beat...we will see.

Staying healthy is one of the biggest keys to victory in the NFL...and in an NFC so close, it could be what propels San Francisco to an 8-8 record...or, shockingly, a miraculous playoff appearance. Of course, one or two injuries in the wrong areas could send the team back to 6-10...just cross your fingers for Spencer and Gore.

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

5-5

For the first time in four seasons, the 49ers are at .500 after ten games.

Is this team actually a playoff team? Right now, I still have my doubts.

The Niners only have one road win. San Francisco has been a much better team at home for many years. Even recently, when they've been terrible, they have still consistently played better at home. Remember last year's game at home vs. Seattle? 27-25 Seahawks. Remember the road game? 41-3.

So, the team has not proven it can beat a good team on the road, as has been the case for many years now.

Looking at the remainder of the schedule, San Francisco must win this week at St. Louis. This is always a difficult place to play, given that the Rams have built their team for the turf (relying on speed and downfield passing to Holt and Bruce).

San Francisco can win at St. Louis---they even did last season (remember, SF beat the Rams twice last season, despite their putrid team). A win would put the Niners at 6-5. I will actually be rooting for Brett Favre (never thought I'd say that six years ago...) this week against Seattle. A Packers win, and the Niners are tied for first.

The Niners then play at New Orleans (difficult game, probable L), and later play at Seattle and at Denver. You have to think the Niners lose all of these games. Victories against the Cardinals and Packers at home (definitely possible) puts the team at 8-8.

Is 8-8 good enough to make the playoffs? Only with some luck...but it's possible Seattle could have some trouble down the stretch...(we won't even get into Wild Card chances here).

Seattle plays at Denver, vs. San Diego (just beat Denver at Mile High) and at Tampa Bay. The Bucs aren't good, but playing at home, that may not be a walk for Seattle. Three losses there puts Seattle at 9-7 with wins over Green Bay, Arizona and San Francisco. A victory over Tampa, and Seattle goes 10-6. These seem like the most likely scenarios...

In order for SF to win the west, Seattle pretty much has to lose to Green Bay this week (and the Niners must beat the Rams, of course).

So, root for Mr. Fav-re and chant GO PACK GO like you never thought you would before...

Welcome to the 49ers blog

This blog will be dedicated to analyzing the performance of the San Francisco 49ers. The goal of this blog is to become one of the premier 49ers blogs on the Internet. While I am not a San Francisco Chronicle beat writer or have any inside information on the team, I am a passionate fan who follows the team closely and has for many years. As the Niners fight to make the playoffs for the first time since the Garcia-Owens-Hearst era, I hope that other dedicated fans find this blog and add their two-cents on what they've seen from the team and what they hope to see in the future.

This is not a blog for complaining about the Yorks. Please do not read this blog if your concern is to complain about the team's ownership. This childish moaning is boring, hackneyed and pointless. The Yorks are trying to win, even if they have faults. Rather, this blog serves as a forum to discuss the players and coaching of the football team. Feel free to offer thoughts on players you'd like to see join (or leave) the team...and feel free to question coaching moves and player signings and puzzling contracts. Just don't expect to see anything about the stadium conflict or San Francisco politics. This isn't the place.

I hope 49ers fans across the globe find this blog and contribute to enhancing the dialogue about the team, which is currently sorely lacking.

Go Niners!